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I. Introduction

Since 2016, the political realignment of the U.S. Democratic Party has become a focal point in academia and politics. The 2024 U.S. presidential election dealt a major blow to the Democrats, with Vice President Kamala Harris losing the race and the party losing its majority control in the Senate while seeing its House seats diminish, prompting deep introspection within the party. Analysis by The New York Times reveals that the Democratic base has continued to shrink compared to 2020, marking the party’s most severe electoral defeat since 1988. Although Harris and President Biden have urged perseverance, the question of whether the Democrats can effectively reorganize in the face of Trump’s right-wing agenda reforms will determine their political future. Domestic academic research on the Democratic Party has primarily focused on U.S. political science, international relations, and Sino-U.S. relations, but thematic studies remain fragmented, lacking comprehensive and dynamic examination. The 2024 election defeat has forced the party into a new round of internal realignment and division, with its political trajectory and rebuilding path fraught with uncertainty. Strengthening research on the Democratic Party holds significant academic and practical value, aiding in deepening theories of party realignment, opening windows for policy prediction, enhancing understanding of the evolution of U.S. political ecosystems, and providing perspectives for forecasting future adjustments in its foreign policy.

II. Manifestations of the Democratic Party’s Political Realignment

Political realignment in the U.S. primarily manifests as shifts in the relationship between voters and political parties, profoundly impacting election outcomes and the political landscape. After the defeats in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, signs of the Democratic Party’s realignment emerged, including the restructuring of its voter base, ideological recalibration, and adjustments in regional support patterns. In the restructuring of its voter base, the Democratic Party has suffered significant losses among working-class voters, particularly in traditional industrial regions of the Midwest. In the 2024 election, class divisions defined by education levels became a core cleavage in U.S. politics, with the party maintaining support among highly educated voters but losing ground among those without college degrees. The Democrats have gradually transformed from a traditional "working-class party" into a coalition of highly educated white elites and less-educated minority voters, with policy agendas reflecting liberal tendencies. The 2024 defeat intensified grassroots discontent within the party, as seen in the Democratic National Committee chair election, where Ken Martin defeated Ben Wikler, signaling an intent to refocus on working-class voters.

Ideologically, progressivism’s influence within the party has waned, with radical policies pushed by elite activists diverging from the fundamental demands and values of the broader electorate. A new moderate faction has risen, advocating for "liberal nationalism," promoting an agenda centered on industrial policy, opposing the market-oriented "neoliberalism," and calling for the consolidation and improvement of the welfare state system. This faction has proposed a "populist" theory, urging a focus on policies with high public approval and advocating for "supply-side progressivism," emphasizing results-driven policymaking.

In terms of regional support, the Democratic Party’s standing in the "Rust Belt" has rapidly declined, weakening its ability to maintain the "Blue Wall." Republican efforts to undermine union rights have accelerated the Democrats’ loss of traditional blue-collar strongholds. Harris’s losses in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2024 further reshaped the party’s overall political support map. Conversely, the party’s influence in the "Sun Belt" has grown, driven by demographic changes, urbanization, grassroots mobilization, and strategic adjustments. The 2020 election marked the Democrats’ rise in this region, with Biden winning Georgia and Arizona, turning these states into "swing states." Although Harris underperformed in Georgia and Arizona in 2024, the margins against Trump were relatively narrow, and the party exceeded expectations in down-ballot races. The Democratic Party’s regional support structure is undergoing profound transformation: the traditional "Blue Wall" has collapsed, while the "Sun Belt" is increasingly becoming a critical potential base.

III. Dynamic Evolution of the Democratic Party’s Political Realignment

Since 2016, the Democratic Party has experienced internal realignment and division, with progressives and moderates engaging in fierce debates over rebuilding strategies, power structures, economic paradigms, and governance models. After the 2024 defeat, there was broad consensus within the party on the need for change, but assessments of the severity of the crisis diverged. Progressives like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) called for radical populism to counter "Trumpism," while moderates proposed rebuilding working-class alliances, launching a "Pennsylvania Plan," and halting electoral vote losses. Generational shifts have challenged the party’s traditional power structure, with younger progressives pushing for reorganization. Economically, internal debates rage over a "post-neoliberal" paradigm, as Biden’s interventionist approach failed to secure working-class support. In governance, tensions between a "prosperity agenda" and "community veto power" reflect the party’s existential crisis. If left unresolved, these divisions could weaken the Democrats’ ability to counter Trump’s populist challenge.

IV. Prospects for the Democratic Party’s Political Realignment

The future of the Democratic Party’s realignment will be shaped by economic restructuring, deepening culture wars, post-2024 election reflections, and internal power struggles. Economic shifts have eroded the party’s image as a "working-class party," with union decline driving working-class voters toward the GOP. Culture wars have exacerbated campaign strategy disputes, highlighting stark policy differences between progressives and moderates. The 2024 defeat hastened the demise of the "Obama coalition," with the party losing significant support among key demographics. In internal power struggles, moderates have regained influence through local election wins and pragmatic policy adjustments, potentially reshaping the party’s future trajectory.

V. Conclusion

After the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Democratic Party faces profound internal realignment, grappling with crises of identity, economic transformation, cultural polarization, ideological battles, and regional political reconfiguration. Its traditional coalition has collapsed, yet no new power structure has emerged. Defections by working-class voters expose a disconnect in policy agendas, while progressive-moderate divisions intensify, and responses to regional economic shifts remain inadequate. Whether the party can forge a new coalition and avoid prolonged opposition will profoundly influence the U.S. political landscape.

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